The OC Housing Report 3/2/2026
Orange County Real Estate Market Update – March 2026
Buying Conditions Are Improving
For the first time in a while, I can confidently say this: buying conditions in Orange County are improving.
After several years of tight inventory and mortgage rates hovering between 6.5% and 7.5%, we’re finally seeing meaningful shifts. Rates have dropped to around 6%, inventory has grown — especially in the more affordable price ranges — and buyer purchasing power has increased.
If you’ve been waiting for the “right time” to explore buying in Orange County, this may be it.
1️⃣ Inventory Is Up — Especially Under $1.5M
There are currently 3,531 homes available in Orange County, up 11% year-over-year.
But here’s what really matters:
Homes under $2.5M are up 19%
Homes under $1.5M are up 21%
Under $500K → up 44%
$500K–$750K → up 35%
$750K–$1M → up 21%
Luxury ($2.5M+) → down 18% year-over-year
This is the strongest inventory environment entry-level and mid-range buyers have seen in years.
Make it stand out
Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.
2️⃣ Mortgage Rates Have Meaningfully Improved
Mortgage rates have been stuck near 7% for years. Today, they’re hovering around 6% — the lowest level since September 2022.
That 1% drop makes a significant difference.
For a buyer targeting a $5,000 monthly principal & interest payment with 20% down:
At 7% → purchasing power = $940,000
At 6% → purchasing power = $1,042,500
That’s a $102,500 increase
If rates dipped to 5.75%, purchasing power increases even further.
For a $1M home with 20% down:
Payment at 7% → $5,322/month
Payment at 6% → $4,796/month
Savings → $526/month ($6,307/year)
Affordability is still tight because prices remain elevated — but the improvement year-over-year is substantial.
3️⃣ Inventory Is Rising Faster Than Demand
In the past two weeks:
Inventory ↑ 5% (now 3,531 homes)
Demand ↑ 2% (1,542 pending sales)
Expected Market Time ↑ from 67 to 69 days
This tells us the market is balancing slightly more in favor of buyers.
Shows how today compares to 2023–2025 levels.
Buyer activity is stable year-over-year but hasn’t surged yet despite better rates.
The Expected Market Time at 69 days is slightly slower than last year (61 days) and just above the pre-COVID average of 62 days.
We are not in a bidding war frenzy.
We are in a strategic buying window.
4️⃣ Luxury Market Update ($2.5M+)
Luxury inventory increased 11% in the past two weeks, now at 854 homes.
Luxury demand also increased 13%, bringing Expected Market Time to 148 days.
Breakdown:
$2.5M–$4M → 126 days
$4M–$6M → 117 days
$6M+ → 262 days
Luxury remains slower and more negotiation-driven, but conditions have slightly improved.
5️⃣ What This Means for Buyers
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines because:
“There’s nothing available”
“Rates are too high”
“It’s too competitive”
That narrative is shifting.
We now have:
✔ More homes to choose from
✔ Improved affordability
✔ Stable (not spiking) home values
✔ Negotiation leverage in certain price points
Buyer demand hasn’t exploded yet — which creates opportunity.
6️⃣ Final Market Snapshot
Active Listings: 3,531
Demand: 1,542 pending sales
Expected Market Time: 69 days
Distressed homes: 0.1% of listings
Sales-to-list price ratio: 96.8%
The market isn’t “hot.”
It isn’t “frozen.”
It’s stabilizing.
Should You Make a Move?
If you’re considering buying in Orange County in 2026, this is the most favorable setup we’ve seen in quite some time.
I’m happy to provide:
A customized purchasing power analysis
A neighborhood-specific inventory breakdown
A strategic game plan for negotiation
You can download the full March 2, 2026 Orange County Housing Report here:
