The OC Housing Report 2/19/2026
Orange County Real Estate Update: Your 2026 Seller’s Blueprint
If you’re thinking about selling this spring, the key word right now is precision.
The Orange County housing market is shifting into its seasonal acceleration phase, but sellers who rely on headlines instead of data are leaving money on the table. I always tell my clients: pricing strategy and timing matter more than ever in this market.
Below is a breakdown of what’s happening right now — and what it means for you.
(Source: OCHousing-Feb-EZE-26 – February 17, 2026 Orange County Housing Report)
1. Pricing Strategy Is Everything
In January:
66% of homes sold below their original asking price
Only 22% sold above list price
12% sold exactly at list price
That means two out of three sellers had to negotiate down from their original expectations.
Why This Matters
Homes that closed below asking price:
Median time on market: 52 days
Median sale-to-original price ratio: 95%
On a $1,000,000 listing → final price averaged $950,000
Homes that sold at or above list price:
Median time on market: 8 days
That’s not luck — that’s strategic pricing and presentation.
This graph clearly shows the shift in pricing outcomes and reinforces why precision pricing is critical.
2. If You Overprice, You Pay Twice
33% of January sales required a price reduction.
For those sellers:
Median time on market: 93 days
Even after reducing the price, they still sold at 97.6% of their last list price
Median amount shaved off after reduction: $25,000
Compare that to homes that didn’t reduce:
Median days on market: 13 days
Sold at 99.8% of last list price
Median discount: just $2,000
The market rewards homes that are positioned correctly from day one.
3. The Market Is Speeding Up
The Expected Market Time (how long it would take to sell all homes at the current pace of demand) just dropped from 75 days to 67 days in the past two weeks.
That’s the fastest pace since March of last year.
This graphic shows how the market accelerates seasonally and where we stand compared to prior years.
What’s Driving This?
Inventory increased 6% (now 3,354 homes)
Demand surged 19% (1,510 pending sales)
Mortgage rates recently dropped to ~6.04%
A 1% drop in rates equals roughly 10% increase in purchasing power
Buyer activity is improving as we head into the Spring market.
4. Inventory & Demand Breakdown
Current snapshot:
Inventory
3,354 active homes
10% higher than last year
Still 44% below pre-COVID averages
Demand
1,510 pending sales
Up 19% in just two weeks
Slightly above last year
We’re not in a frenzy — but we are in a healthy, improving market.
This clearly illustrates the recent surge in buyer activity.
5. Luxury Market Update ($2M+)
Luxury is improving — but it remains slower than the mid-range market.
Luxury inventory: 768 homes (↑5%)
Luxury demand: 153 pending sales (↑8%)
Expected Market Time: 151 days
That means a luxury seller today should expect roughly a 4–5 month runway to secure a buyer.
Breakdown:
$2.5M–$4M → 123 days
$4M–$6M → 145 days
$6M+ → 245 days
This table is powerful for sellers to understand how pricing tier affects timeline.
6. What This Means for Sellers
If you’re planning to sell in the next 90 days, here’s the blueprint:
1️⃣ Price at Fair Market Value — Not Aspirational Value
Buyers are highly educated and compare dozens of homes instantly.
2️⃣ Create “Wow Factor”
Turnkey homes with upgrades and clean presentation win.
3️⃣ Understand Seasonality
The market speeds up from mid-January through March.
Competition increases as more sellers hit the market in April and beyond.
4️⃣ Avoid the Price Reduction Trap
Homes that reduce price take longer and net less.
7. Final Market Snapshot
Sales-to-list price ratio: 96.8%
Distressed homes: practically nonexistent (0.1% of listings)
99.7% of sales are equity sellers
1,214 homes closed in January
This is a strategic market — not an emotional one.
Thinking About Selling?
If you're considering listing your home this year, I’m happy to provide:
A detailed Fair Market Value analysis
A customized pricing strategy
A launch plan designed to maximize exposure in the first 7–10 days
The first week on market is everything.
📎 Full Market Report
For the complete February 17, 2026 Orange County Housing Report, you can download it here:
