The OC Housing Report - 8/17/26

The Condo Gap Just Got Wider

A couple weeks ago, attached homes (condos and townhomes) were taking three weeks longer to sell than houses. Now it’s closer to a full month. The gap between how fast condos move and how fast houses move just keeps stretching — and it’s worth understanding if you own one, want to buy one, or are shopping in the detached market instead.

Here’s what’s actually happening in the market this week. (Want the full data-nerd version? Read the complete August 17 report here.)

Condos Now Take a Month Longer to Sell Than Houses

The Expected Market Time for attached homes jumped from 114 to 118 days in the past two weeks. For detached homes, it dropped from 93 to 87 days. That’s a 31-day gap now, up from 21 days just two weeks ago.

Year-over-year, the divide is even starker: attached homes were selling in just 85 days last year — they’re now 33 days slower. Detached homes, meanwhile, are actually 8 days faster than they were last year. Rising HOA dues, underfunded reserves, and tighter lending requirements on attached properties keep pushing buyers toward houses instead.

Demand Just Had Its Biggest Jump Since May

Buyer demand rose from 1,494 to 1,535 pending sales in the past two weeks — up 3%, the largest increase since the start of May. It’s still the lowest mid-August reading since this report started tracking data back in 2004, but after a long stretch of flat-to-declining numbers, this is a real signal. Expect it to be short-lived, though — this is typically the last push of the Summer Market before demand eases into fall.

Inventory Has Basically Plateaued

The active listing inventory increased by just 8 homes in the past two weeks, landing at 5,054 — nearly identical to this time last year (5,011). It’s up only 34 homes over the past four weeks, suggesting supply has topped out ahead of the seasonal slowdown that typically begins in September.

With supply flat and demand rising, the Expected Market Time for all of Orange County dropped from 101 to 99 days. Last year it was 91 days; the pre-COVID (2017–2019) average was 79 days — so the market remains slower than historical norms, even with this recent improvement.

The Luxury Market Is on a Roll

Homes priced above $2.5 million saw their Expected Market Time drop from 181 to 155 days — the strongest reading since the start of May. Luxury inventory fell 3% while luxury demand jumped 13%, a combination that’s rare this year.

Every luxury tier under $6 million improved: the $2.5M–$4M range dropped from 148 to 111 days, and the $4M–$6M range eased from 188 to 168 days. The one exception is the ultra-luxury tier above $6 million, where market time actually stretched from 276 to 370 days — a reminder that “luxury” isn’t one market, it’s several. At the current overall luxury pace, a seller listing today is realistically looking at a pending sale around January 2027.

Rates and What’s Coming

Keep an eye on this week’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI release, and next week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Both can move mortgage rates depending on how they land relative to expectations. Developments in the Iran conflict and their ripple effect on oil prices are also worth watching, since they can influence inflation and, in turn, rates.

What This Means For You

If you own a condo or townhome and are thinking about selling: Price it sharply and lead with HOA transparency. Reserve funding and upcoming assessments are top of mind for buyers and lenders alike right now — homes that address these questions upfront are outperforming the 118-day average.

If you’re buying a condo or townhome: Leverage is on your side. A widening gap like this means more room to negotiate on price and terms, especially on listings that have been sitting a while.

If you’re in the detached home market: Conditions are comparatively strong — market time is improving, and pricing has held firm. Don’t expect much room to negotiate on well-priced homes.

If you’re shopping in the luxury tier under $6 million: This is the best window you’ve had since spring. Above $6 million, expect a longer runway and be ready to be patient either way.

Curious what any of this means for your specific situation? I’m always happy to talk it through — no pressure, just a conversation.Reach out anytime.

Full Report:View the Complete August 17, 2026 Orange County Housing Report →

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